Mahmoud Abbas has set up an emergency government, a move which should relax the Western embargo against the Palestinian Authority.
It comes as gunmen loyal to his Fatah movement capture Hamas bases in the West Bank.
This, in turn, is making a mockery of claims that the Palestinians will remain as one principality. Hamas says it does not intend to set up a state in Gaza, but that is the reality. Fatah’s offensive in the West Bank only consolidates the split.
The US is backing Abbas. This makes sense in the context of American foreign policy; the US is an ally of Israel and of the two main Palestinian groups Fatah is the only one which recognises Israel’s right to exist.
Hamas, on the other hand, wishes to destroy the nation.
The relaxation of sanctions could be an a major PR boost for Fatah and Abbas in particular. His party is largely responsible for its own downfall, but most Palestinians are willing to back whoever will get them food and the basic necessities. Thus, if Abbas is seen to have brought much-needed aid to his people his stock among them will rise.
However, he also exposes himself to claims of being a US puppet. This would be valuable propaganda from a Hamas perspective, but would not be of great significance among his citizens.
Gaza now seems fairly calm. But its future is uncertain; it is not a viable state by itself. The Gazan economy has been in freefall in the last six years, most of its industry is small-scale family operations and it depends on Israel for electricity.
An idealistic solution would be the disarmament of both Hamas and Fatah fighters by a strong international force under UN leadership. However, this is highly unlikely.
The political will just isn’t there for countries to send their troops to Palestine. The Gazans may only accept soldiers from Muslim nations, but this is a situation Israel would not tolerate.
This is not a scenario with an easy resolution on the horizon. Such a UN force would be stationed there for years; and given the difficulty the world body has had in forming a mission to Lebanon I can’t see it getting the numbers and resources it would need for a Gazan force.
Dialogue between the Palestinian groups is another possibility, although it may be some time for the situation to calm enough for this to take place. Even before the civil war numerous truces were called between the sides only to be broken hours later.
Do you think the crisis can be resolved?
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