An absolute gem unearthed by Frank Little of The Cedar Lounge Revolution:

Patricia Sullivan, a professor at the University of Georgia in the US, has devised a mathematical equation to predict the outcome of conflicts based on a detailed analysis of 122 military interventions involving the US, Britain, China, Russia and France since 1945.

She claims the equation is accurate in 78% of cases.

The equation is posted on Cedar Lounge, which notes Sullivan’s argument that “key determinant in many conflicts has been the attitude of the civilian population”. Winning hearts and minds is as vital in the aftermath of upheaval — a patten that can be found throughout history — as it is in domestic politics.

*If you get this reference I will be so utterly impressed you’ll get a blog post dedicated to you. Can’t say I’m not generous!

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